Speed Math: 2D6 vs 3D6, when should I boost?

So my previous math rant had to do with getting masses of six-sided dice to do what you want.  This is for a system more geared toward mass combat, like 40K.  But for a more detailed skirmish based system like Warmachine, you need more complex statistics to figure out what you want to do.

In Warmachine, you roll 2D6 and add the result to an attack skill.  If you meet or beat the enemy’s defense, you hit.  But, if you roll the dice and every die you roll comes up “1” then you miss, even if the result would have been higher than the enemy defense.  Look at this square I drew:

All you have to do is take the enemy defense, subtract your attack skill, and the result is the amount you have to roll to hit.  Then, count up all the squares in the above picture and divide the result by 36 to get the percent chance to hit.

For example, a Cygnar Charger (RAT 6) is trying to shoot High Exemplar Kreoss (DEF 14).  14 – 6 = 8.  So, the Cygnar player must roll an 8 or more to hit.  You’ll see above that 15 of the squares are 8 or higher, so 15 / 36 = .416666 or 41.67% which is a little better than 2 in 5.  Not very good odds.

Now imagine that the Charger had forgone his movement to gain a +2 aiming bonus (effective RAT 8).  14 – 8 = 6.  Now there are 26 suares 6 or higher, so the chances are 26 / 36 = .722 or 72.2% better than seven in ten.  Much more likely.

What if you NEED to hit Kreoss, but have to move to hit him?  In Warmachine you can always boost to hit.  This makes the math slightly harder, but it’s easy to break down visually.  Click to zoom and actually see the numbers.

This would be easier in 3d but I don’t know how to do that, so I made 6 grids.  This seems daunting at first, but once you see patterns you can go pretty fast.  Now let’s say the Charger is boosting to hit.  The check is the same (14 – 6 still equals 8 ) but now there is a 3D6 roll.  You’ll notice in the first square that 21 of the 36 squares are 8 or more.  In the second box, it’s 26 which is 21 + 5.  In the third it’s 30 which is 26 + 4, one less than the previous increase.  Then it’s 33 (30+3) 35 (33+2) and 36 (35+1).  See the pattern?

So the total for all of these boxes 8 or more is 181.  The total number of boxes is 216.  181 / 216 = .8397 or about 84%.  Much higher than the 41.67% of the unboosted roll.  It’s more than twice as likely now.  However, you don’t ever really need to do the math on the 3D6 rolls ever.  I just showed you so that you’d know that the 3D6 is much better than 2D6.  Duh.

So when should you boost?  Take a look at this handy dandy chart:

Common wisdom of Warmachine Forums says if you need a 6 or lower, don’t boost because in the end it’s a waste.  According to the chart above, a 6 gives you a 72% chance.  That’s pretty good.  A 7 gives you a 58% chance, going from better than 7 in 10 to slightly worse than 6 in 10.  Bu this can be modified if you NEED something to hit or if you don’t care, like if you’re taking a pot shot or swinging with an open fist when a Quake Hammer does the damage.  So if you NEED the hit, an 83% chance might not even be safe enough and you’d boost needing a 5.  However if you don’t care you might not boost even if you need a 10 which is a 1 in 6 chance.  You’ll have to tailor it to the appropriate situation, but if you can call up that grid in your head and do some simple division, you can judge whether to boost or not pretty quickly.  Probably faster than it takes for your opponent to look up the stats of his model.

On my plate: 3-7-11

-Battlefleet Gothic: 11 Chaos escorts plus a huge amound of ordnance, 8 Transports, Orbital Dock, 3 Satellites and 20 small ground defences.  I need to buy spray primer tonight.

-Warmachine: Upgraded priorities.  Next project after Gothic is Kreoss, 2 light jacks and heavy from Box Set.  Then I can Demo Warmachine.  Cygnar on hold.

-Necromunda: Need to finish my Orlock gang, and start painting Delaques.  I also need to get more tabs from Jen so that I can use the Necromunda board she made for me.  Status: In progress. Orlocks are 1/2 painted.

-Azure Flames: Need to convert a stand in for Kor’Sarro Khan, and mod up a Chaplain on Bike.  I also need to conceptualize an Honor Guard unit for Perseus.  Status: ON HOLD. The Flames are complete enough for now.

-Orks: Need to complete painting all minis, possibly buy one more box of Boys but no more. Status: ON HOLD pending spring.  I need warm temperatures outside to do dipping, as I cannot do it indoors due to cares.

-The Saratogan 58th: Need to build most of the minis and paint up at least 1500 points to start learning how to play Guard.  Status: ON HOLD.  Way too much on my plate to start an army from almost scratch.

-Epic 40,000: Have to get more Space Marine Rhinos, and paint both a huge Space Marine army and Ork army.  Status: ON HOLD.  Once again, too much on my plate.

I’m almost done with Gothic!  Stuff is getting crossed off my list.

Imperial Navy Fleet finished

Imperial Navy done!  Next: Chaos!  First, I must re-base the Repulsive class grand cruiser onto a large base so it can buy a 3rd shield.  Then, paint 11 escorts and all their ordnance, which is a lot.

EDIT: With all available upgrades, Torpedo Bombers on the Emperor Class,  and a Solar Admiral with 3 re-rolls, this is 3980 points, so if 4 ships take power rams, it’s exactly 4000

Speed Math: The D6 and statistics.

A lot of games that I play use the D6 or standard 6 sided die as a determination of random events (i.e. shooting you in the face).  Ideally a fair die will have a 1/6 chance to roll any result 1-6.  You can use simple knowledges of statistics to determine whether a move is correct or not.

For example: The remnants of a Space marine Tactical Squad consisting of six Space Marines with Bolters and Bolt Pistols is 10″ away from a squad of six Chaos Space Marines.  They have three choices.  1: Move up, fire their Bolt Pistols, and assault the Chaos Marines.  2: Remain stationary (or move to a slightly better position less than 12″ away) and fire their Bolters twice, or 3: run away!

The tactical situation determines what you should do, but let’s use statistics to determine what each choice will entail.

Scenario 1: Because the Space Marine’s BS is 4, they hit on a roll of 3+.  This means that, on average, 2/3 of the shots will hit.  This means that the Marines will get 4 hits with their pistols.  These shots wound on a 4+ so 2 of them should wound.  Because the Chaos marines have a 3+ save, the chances that at least one Chaos Marine will die is 1/3 + 2/3 * 1/3, which is a 5/9 chance or about 56%.  Then the Marines charge.  They each get 2 attacks for a total of 12, and hit on a 4+ which means that 6 should hit.  They wound on a 4+ so 3 should wound, and because the Chaos Marines have a 3+ armor save, about 1 Chaos Marine should die.  If a Chaos Marine died from shooting, the Chaos Marines would have 10 attacks, which would generate 5 hits, and 2.5 wounds.  Let’s be generous and give them 3.  1 Space Marine would die, and the combat would be a tie.  Next turn, Marines get 5 attacks, Chaos Marines get 8.  Clearly this will end poorly for the Marines.

Scenario 2: The Marines fire 12 times, hit 8 times, and cause 4 wounds, so on average 1 Chaos Marine dies and there’s a small chance a second will die.  The Chaos Marines will then move up next turn.  The Chaos Marines are better in assault, so they fire 5 Bolt pistols, Hit 2.5 times which rounds up to 3.  They then wound 1.5 times which we round down (In these scenarios I round up, then down, then up etc.).  Probably not killing a Marine.  They charge getting 15 attacks, 8 hits, and 4 wounds, which will probably kill a Marine but the Marines attack back with 6, hit 3 times, and wound twice, possibly killing a Chaos Marine.  Not as bad, but the Marines are still outclassed by the Chaos Marines and their bolt pistols and close combat weapons.

Scenario 3: Marines move back 6″ and run D6″ for a total movement of 7-12″ away from the Chaos Marines.  If the squad was 10″ away, then the Chaos  Marines will be able to shoot the Marines if the final distance is 18″ or less.  The Marines more 6″ in the movement phase, and are now 16″ away.  If the Marines roll a 1 or 2, they will be able to be shot, so this is a 1/3 chance.  The remaining 2/3 chance the Marines will not be able to be shot.

In the end, do you want to pin the Chaos Marines in place?  Harass them and make them advance, essentially baiting them?  Or preserve your squad to hold an objective?  By understanding the math above, you can make an informed decision based on your needs.  Without understanding how well each outcome is likely to be, you may trust in those marines to break the Chaos Marines, which is unlikely.

Once you can do this kind of thing in your head, you can make choices on the battlefield much quicker.

More Imperial Navy

All Imperial Navy ships are done, but I forgot the Ordnance Markers!  Those will hopefully be fast.

Benjamins: The Cost of Gaming

At an incredibly boring meeting today, my school district discussed poverty and its effects on education.  Bottom line: Poverty BAD.  But it got me to thinking: my idea for making a gaming club will do more than foster relationships between gamers, it will give access to gaming to students who can’t afford such expensive hobbies.  They’ll at least be able to try various games.

This then led to the inevitable question: is this a hobby for everyone, or just bourgeois capitalist fatcats like myself?  How much does it COST to really get into gaming?

Well, let’s see.  These cost estimates are based on retail prices of JUST miniatures only.  No glue, paint, dice, terrain, or anything else.  This is what it costs to get into gaming if you already know of a gaming group that provides boards and terrain, and ignores glue and paint as negligible.  Of course they’re not, but I need to make this assumption to make the cost analysis fair.  After all, scale will determine how much glue you use and overinflate prices for larger games.

Warhammer 40,000

40K is good for beginners at 1,000 pts.  This is a good size game for a beginner, and it’s a good jump off point for a larger army.  I’ll use the Ubiquitous Space Marines, as most new players pick one iteration or another of Marines.

-Commander Box set: $20

-2x Battleforce: $180 (for 10 Assault Marines, 10 Scouts, 2 full Tat Squads, 2 Rhinos, and 10 more Space Marines)

-Terminator or Assault Terminator box: $50

Total: $250  That’s a lot of disposable income for a high schooler, and out of the question for someone below the poverty line.  But an after school job could allow students enough pocket change to buy this piecemeal.  Not too out of control.

Warhammer Fantasy

Decided to go with the High Elves because they’re in the Island of Blood box, allowing easy starting or expansion.  This estimate will not allow that, only allowing blisters and box sets as the Island of Blood box is a STEAL and is unfair to all other armies except Skaven.

-Pewter Character: $15

-Pewter mage: $13.50

-2x Archers box: $70

-2x Spearmen Box: $70

-Silver Helms Box: $35

-Bolt Thrower: $22.50 (not the metal band)

Total: $226 – Similar to 40K.  This also does not include Movement Trays, as cheap players can make their own out of breakfast cereal boxes until they can afford good ones.

Warmachine/Hordes

Much smaller scale (which is why I omitted glue/paint)  Chose Cygnar 25pts because I can relate to it.

-Cygnar Battleforce: $50

-Long Gunners x6: $25

-Stormblades: $43

-3x Stormsmiths: $36

Total: $154 This estimate has a lot of error as I compiled it from several sources.

So it seems that for about $250 you can have a small playable force of GW minis, or probably close to 35 points of Warmachine/Hordes.  Differing armies can inflate this price, but probably not by too much.  All in all, not too expensive to get in to.  However expanding your armies can cost, big time.  That’s how they get you.

Old vs. New: Looking for Out of Print Minis

Lexington had an idea for Gretchin crew on a stompa, but needed some Out of Print plastic Night Goblins.  He showed me the pics.  Here is a comparison between those old plastic Night Goblins and the current ones.  Old ones on top, new ones on bottom.

Check out those old minis.  Big noses.  Varied expressions.  And that’s only five of the minis from the old box!  The new ones are more same-y.  Their faces are less fun, more “ooga-booga we’re scary.”  They’re not BAD, but they’re not as good as the old ones.  Same thing with the new plastic Horrors of Tzeentch as opposed to the old 3rd edition pewter horrors.  Again, old on top.

See how the old horrors seem to be in the very process of changing?  Like they are actively mutating, and they were frozen in time and cast in pewter.  The new ones look OK, and are actually closer to the old Horrors from 2nd ed.  Plus they are plastic, which is lighter.  But those old Horrors are so BIZZARE.

Now let me say that THESE ARE EXCEPTIONS.  Usually new kits are better than old kits.  For the Space Ork Boyz box, the bitz hardly changed but they got a lot of extra little things to add, like piles of shells and an Ork skull.  New Space Marine Devastator box has awesome heavy weapons that are more detailed than the old pewter counterparts.  New models usually mean better models.

But not always.  This is part of the First Strand: Choosing your minis.  Sure Lexington could use the new Night Goblins.  But he wants a specific look.  That’s why sometimes you have to look back to go forward.

Da Grand Baron Skippy Von Peanut Butta and his Flash Gitz Mob

Modeling

Da Grand Baron Skippy Von Peanut Butta is the one in the first two pics.  He is the body of an old pewter Bad Moons Nob in Mega Armor (2nd ed) with Snikrot’s head.  His arms are taken from the new Plastic Nobz box, and the shoulder pads are extra armor from the Boyz box.  The gun is a plasma gun from the old 2nd ed nob with a Space Marine Godhammer pattern Lascannon from the Land Raider.  The banner pole is brass rod pinned to the Bad Moons symbol from the 2nd ed Nob.  The Belly is sculpted out of putty.  A diet rich in peanut butter packs on the pounds!

The other Flash Gitz are plastic Nobz from the box set.  The one with two pistols was my first Flash Git, he has two of the Nob pistol from the Boyz box set, and putty sculpted mirrorshades.  His name is Nee-yo.

The next one has a combi-rokkit launcha with two electrodes cut from the head of the Mek from the Loota/Burna box set and a coiled paperclip to make a bullet electrifier.  He’s TeslaDakka.

The one with the bow has a bow made of brass rod and paperclip, with putty feathers and rokkits from the Deffkopta.  That’s what I think a Snakebite Flash Git would look like.  He’s Blam-bo.

The one that has a lot of Tau bitz uses a lot os stuff from the Tau Suit box.  Front plate, drone up top on the bosspole, burst cannon and carbines on the gun.  The club is a Tau Suit leg with a spiky shoulder pad.  He’s Runtsmasha.

The next one is Rokkit Rokkit Rokkit.  He uses every rocket from the Space Marines, Orks, and Imperial Guard that I could find.

The one with the long barreled double big shoota has the shoota taken from the Assault on Black Reach Warboss with two Autocannon barrels glued on,  He’s Dubba-tap.

The one with the pewter backpack has combi weapons made from Tau plasma and melta with a Space Marine Melta and an Ork Slugga.  The shoulder straps were putty sculpted and the backpack is Snikrot’s.  He’s Nooka.

The last one is sighting down a Space Marine Godhammer Lascannon and has a Guard Heavy Bolter too, with the Gretchin Backpack from the Loota/Burna box.  I really like the pose, as it looks like he’s trying to aim.  He’s Dedeye.

That’s 8 Flash Gitz and a Character for 9, plus a Dok is a full unit of 10.

Background

Baron Peanut Butta: a tale of addiction in the 41st Millenium

Grutz was a shoota boy, nothing special about him. While looting a Human encampment, he came across a pantry, and in the pantry was a can of light brown goo. Its smell was like nothing Grutz had experienced, and he tasted it.

It was the best thing. EVER.

He couldn’t get enough! He wolfed down the whole can in minutes; despite its annoying but pleasant sticky texture. He smashed apart the pantry looking for more, then inquired around. The only other intact can in the entire encampment (a BIG can, from the Mess Hall) was in the loot pile of the biggest Nob in the whole warband.

So Grutz beat him to death with a shoe.  Why? What would YOU have done?

Well, ol’ Grutz made that big can last, because he realized you don’t get to raid Humie camps every day. When he ran out, he went to see Boss Smartyskull, and showed him the can. Da Boss could read Humie somehow, and he said that it was called “Peanut Butta.”

Grutz said that HE was called Peanut Butta too, and asked how he could get more. Smartyskull grinned. He said that stuff was real expensive, and Peanut Butta was gonna have to have a lot of teeth to get it. Peanut Butta put every ounce of his brainpower into becoming a shrewd and kunnin businessman. He tried everything from helping out Mad Mek Upzindownz, to outright theft from other Boyz, to selling Squig-aid. Needless to say, all of these activities were highly profitable and suicidally dangerous, especially the Squig-aid.

But Peanut Butta came through mostly intact and filthy stinking rich. He had enough to buy a can or two from The Boss (who stockpiled Humie stuff for some reason) and had enough left over to buy the shootiest gun the Mek could make and some wicked snazzy armour. His brutality and economical prowess caused him to grow to Nob like stature, though he insists on being calld “Da Grand Baron Skippy von Peanut Butta.”

With his fancy shoota he put together a mob of da best Flash Gitz around, whose services he rents out to Smartyskull for more cans of Peanut Butta. If it weren’t for his crippling addiction to that wonderful delicious rich creamy brown nutty stuff, he’d be the boss around here.

Incidentally, whenever Smartyskull finds a human civilization willing to trade, he always purchases as much Peanut Butter as he can. Insurance is expensive, but Peanut Butta’s Flash Gitz are worth every can of loyalty he can buy.

The Martyr Lady Kylen, savior of Saratoga.

Governor Soole of Saratoga fell afoul of the dark powers of Chaos in 326M37. Keeping the secret with his trusted lieutennants, he spread the corruption slowly. His wife, the lady Kylen, was a vision of loveliness, and an idol to the people. When she discovered her husband’s heresy, she refused to join him. He had her imprisoned within the Governor’s estate. Lady Kylen escaped through an air duct, and snuck around the estate, listening in on her husband’s plans. When the time was right, she snuck out, killed two guards, and forced her way into Governor Soole’s broadcast studio during one of his addresses. She exposed his heresy on live electronic broadcast to the entire planet, and beheaded him on the spot. She then said the words which are still etched into the mind of every Saratogan recruit today:

“Fear not the powers of the archenemy, for if your faith is strong, you can overcome them. Rise up, for the Emperor, and take back your world from those who would corrupt it. Look into your hearts and find the strength to win back your freedom. I believe in you…”

Her crude barricade on the door failed, and at that instant, she was cut down in a hail of las-fire in full view of everyone on the planet. Riots ensued, supported by the local Arbites in places. Thus began the resistance. Women took up arms alongside men, and fought the PDF forces loyal to the former governor. Pendants that played an audio recording of Lady Kylen’s last words became popular. Men and Women torn by the grief of war found comfort in those four words “I believe in you”, giving them the strength and faith to purge the Chaos taint. by 351M37, on the very anniversary of Lady Kylen’s martyrdom, the last pockets of Chaos on the planet were eradicated. Thanks to the words of one woman, a planet wrested free of the corruption of the Dark Gods and once again turned to the Emperor’s light.

On my plate: 2-28-11

-Blood Bowl Status: FINISHED

-Battlefleet Gothic: Two Imperial Cruisers and six escorts, 11 Chaos escorts, 8 Transports, Orbital Dock, 3 Satellites and 20 small ground defences.

-Warmachine: Upgraded priorities.  Next project after Gothic is Kreoss, 2 light jacks and heavy from Box Set.  Then I can Demo Warmachine.  Cygnar on hold.

-Necromunda: Need to finish my Orlock gang, and start painting Delaques.  I also need to get more tabs from Jen so that I can use the Necromunda board she made for me.  Status: In progress. Orlocks are 1/2 painted.

-Azure Flames: Need to convert a stand in for Kor’Sarro Khan, and mod up a Chaplain on Bike.  I also need to conceptualize an Honor Guard unit for Perseus.  Status: ON HOLD. The Flames are complete enough for now.

-Orks: Need to complete painting all minis, possibly buy one more box of Boys but no more. Status: ON HOLD pending spring.  I need warm temperatures outside to do dipping, as I cannot do it indoors due to cares.

-The Saratogan 58th: Need to build most of the minis and paint up at least 1500 points to start learning how to play Guard.  Status: ON HOLD.  Way too much on my plate to start an army from almost scratch.

-Epic 40,000: Have to get more Space Marine Rhinos, and paint both a huge Space Marine army and Ork army.  Status: ON HOLD.  Once again, too much on my plate.

Making progress…