What does Sanguinius have that I don’t have?

40K Space Marine players are familiar with different options that each chapter can take.  Every chapter can take almost all of the options, but the Blood Angels have been different since 2nd edition.  They have special variants, and they don’t want to share with the other children.

For example, in the fluff the Space Wolves were assaulting a planet and their Land Raiders were destroyed in some kind of accident.  Lacking mobile lascannon support, they cannibalized their Long Fang lascannons and mounted them on Predator tanks, making the Predator Annhilator pattern.  This worked well, and the design was almost immediately disseminated to all the other Space Marines in the galaxy.

The Blood Angels, on the other hand, have Furioso Dreadnoughts, Baal predators, overcharged engines (which now make their Rhino Chassis vehicles Fast) and most recently the Stormraven Gunship.  Admittedly the Grey Knights also have the Stormraven, but that seems like an odd combo.  No one else has these unique vehicles.  I envision conversations like this happening when Sanguinius chapters meet other chapters.

Dante: Bro, what’s up?

Marneus: DUDE!  Just hanging out, how you been?

Dante: Oh, I gotta tell you about this sweet new tank my techmarines made.  It’s the Shizzle fo’ rizzle!

Marneus: HELLZ YEAH!

Dante: So get this: We mounted a twin linked assault cannon on the Predator Turret.  We call it the Baal Predator.  Bitchin’ huh?

Marneus: Aww, you gots ta get me that design, bro.

Dante: …uh.  Hmm.  Well about that…

Marneus: Come on dogg!

Dante: Sorry bro, but no-can-do.  Mephiston would kill me, and that dude is, like, totally psycho.  Plus he’s 250 points.

Marneus: Harsh, bud.  Look, I got some girls coming over, you’d better go.

Dante: Oh.  I see how it is.  Later.  Bro.

Speed Math: 2D6 vs 3D6, when should I boost?

So my previous math rant had to do with getting masses of six-sided dice to do what you want.  This is for a system more geared toward mass combat, like 40K.  But for a more detailed skirmish based system like Warmachine, you need more complex statistics to figure out what you want to do.

In Warmachine, you roll 2D6 and add the result to an attack skill.  If you meet or beat the enemy’s defense, you hit.  But, if you roll the dice and every die you roll comes up “1” then you miss, even if the result would have been higher than the enemy defense.  Look at this square I drew:

All you have to do is take the enemy defense, subtract your attack skill, and the result is the amount you have to roll to hit.  Then, count up all the squares in the above picture and divide the result by 36 to get the percent chance to hit.

For example, a Cygnar Charger (RAT 6) is trying to shoot High Exemplar Kreoss (DEF 14).  14 – 6 = 8.  So, the Cygnar player must roll an 8 or more to hit.  You’ll see above that 15 of the squares are 8 or higher, so 15 / 36 = .416666 or 41.67% which is a little better than 2 in 5.  Not very good odds.

Now imagine that the Charger had forgone his movement to gain a +2 aiming bonus (effective RAT 8).  14 – 8 = 6.  Now there are 26 suares 6 or higher, so the chances are 26 / 36 = .722 or 72.2% better than seven in ten.  Much more likely.

What if you NEED to hit Kreoss, but have to move to hit him?  In Warmachine you can always boost to hit.  This makes the math slightly harder, but it’s easy to break down visually.  Click to zoom and actually see the numbers.

This would be easier in 3d but I don’t know how to do that, so I made 6 grids.  This seems daunting at first, but once you see patterns you can go pretty fast.  Now let’s say the Charger is boosting to hit.  The check is the same (14 – 6 still equals 8 ) but now there is a 3D6 roll.  You’ll notice in the first square that 21 of the 36 squares are 8 or more.  In the second box, it’s 26 which is 21 + 5.  In the third it’s 30 which is 26 + 4, one less than the previous increase.  Then it’s 33 (30+3) 35 (33+2) and 36 (35+1).  See the pattern?

So the total for all of these boxes 8 or more is 181.  The total number of boxes is 216.  181 / 216 = .8397 or about 84%.  Much higher than the 41.67% of the unboosted roll.  It’s more than twice as likely now.  However, you don’t ever really need to do the math on the 3D6 rolls ever.  I just showed you so that you’d know that the 3D6 is much better than 2D6.  Duh.

So when should you boost?  Take a look at this handy dandy chart:

Common wisdom of Warmachine Forums says if you need a 6 or lower, don’t boost because in the end it’s a waste.  According to the chart above, a 6 gives you a 72% chance.  That’s pretty good.  A 7 gives you a 58% chance, going from better than 7 in 10 to slightly worse than 6 in 10.  Bu this can be modified if you NEED something to hit or if you don’t care, like if you’re taking a pot shot or swinging with an open fist when a Quake Hammer does the damage.  So if you NEED the hit, an 83% chance might not even be safe enough and you’d boost needing a 5.  However if you don’t care you might not boost even if you need a 10 which is a 1 in 6 chance.  You’ll have to tailor it to the appropriate situation, but if you can call up that grid in your head and do some simple division, you can judge whether to boost or not pretty quickly.  Probably faster than it takes for your opponent to look up the stats of his model.

Speed Math: The D6 and statistics.

A lot of games that I play use the D6 or standard 6 sided die as a determination of random events (i.e. shooting you in the face).  Ideally a fair die will have a 1/6 chance to roll any result 1-6.  You can use simple knowledges of statistics to determine whether a move is correct or not.

For example: The remnants of a Space marine Tactical Squad consisting of six Space Marines with Bolters and Bolt Pistols is 10″ away from a squad of six Chaos Space Marines.  They have three choices.  1: Move up, fire their Bolt Pistols, and assault the Chaos Marines.  2: Remain stationary (or move to a slightly better position less than 12″ away) and fire their Bolters twice, or 3: run away!

The tactical situation determines what you should do, but let’s use statistics to determine what each choice will entail.

Scenario 1: Because the Space Marine’s BS is 4, they hit on a roll of 3+.  This means that, on average, 2/3 of the shots will hit.  This means that the Marines will get 4 hits with their pistols.  These shots wound on a 4+ so 2 of them should wound.  Because the Chaos marines have a 3+ save, the chances that at least one Chaos Marine will die is 1/3 + 2/3 * 1/3, which is a 5/9 chance or about 56%.  Then the Marines charge.  They each get 2 attacks for a total of 12, and hit on a 4+ which means that 6 should hit.  They wound on a 4+ so 3 should wound, and because the Chaos Marines have a 3+ armor save, about 1 Chaos Marine should die.  If a Chaos Marine died from shooting, the Chaos Marines would have 10 attacks, which would generate 5 hits, and 2.5 wounds.  Let’s be generous and give them 3.  1 Space Marine would die, and the combat would be a tie.  Next turn, Marines get 5 attacks, Chaos Marines get 8.  Clearly this will end poorly for the Marines.

Scenario 2: The Marines fire 12 times, hit 8 times, and cause 4 wounds, so on average 1 Chaos Marine dies and there’s a small chance a second will die.  The Chaos Marines will then move up next turn.  The Chaos Marines are better in assault, so they fire 5 Bolt pistols, Hit 2.5 times which rounds up to 3.  They then wound 1.5 times which we round down (In these scenarios I round up, then down, then up etc.).  Probably not killing a Marine.  They charge getting 15 attacks, 8 hits, and 4 wounds, which will probably kill a Marine but the Marines attack back with 6, hit 3 times, and wound twice, possibly killing a Chaos Marine.  Not as bad, but the Marines are still outclassed by the Chaos Marines and their bolt pistols and close combat weapons.

Scenario 3: Marines move back 6″ and run D6″ for a total movement of 7-12″ away from the Chaos Marines.  If the squad was 10″ away, then the Chaos  Marines will be able to shoot the Marines if the final distance is 18″ or less.  The Marines more 6″ in the movement phase, and are now 16″ away.  If the Marines roll a 1 or 2, they will be able to be shot, so this is a 1/3 chance.  The remaining 2/3 chance the Marines will not be able to be shot.

In the end, do you want to pin the Chaos Marines in place?  Harass them and make them advance, essentially baiting them?  Or preserve your squad to hold an objective?  By understanding the math above, you can make an informed decision based on your needs.  Without understanding how well each outcome is likely to be, you may trust in those marines to break the Chaos Marines, which is unlikely.

Once you can do this kind of thing in your head, you can make choices on the battlefield much quicker.

Benjamins: The Cost of Gaming

At an incredibly boring meeting today, my school district discussed poverty and its effects on education.  Bottom line: Poverty BAD.  But it got me to thinking: my idea for making a gaming club will do more than foster relationships between gamers, it will give access to gaming to students who can’t afford such expensive hobbies.  They’ll at least be able to try various games.

This then led to the inevitable question: is this a hobby for everyone, or just bourgeois capitalist fatcats like myself?  How much does it COST to really get into gaming?

Well, let’s see.  These cost estimates are based on retail prices of JUST miniatures only.  No glue, paint, dice, terrain, or anything else.  This is what it costs to get into gaming if you already know of a gaming group that provides boards and terrain, and ignores glue and paint as negligible.  Of course they’re not, but I need to make this assumption to make the cost analysis fair.  After all, scale will determine how much glue you use and overinflate prices for larger games.

Warhammer 40,000

40K is good for beginners at 1,000 pts.  This is a good size game for a beginner, and it’s a good jump off point for a larger army.  I’ll use the Ubiquitous Space Marines, as most new players pick one iteration or another of Marines.

-Commander Box set: $20

-2x Battleforce: $180 (for 10 Assault Marines, 10 Scouts, 2 full Tat Squads, 2 Rhinos, and 10 more Space Marines)

-Terminator or Assault Terminator box: $50

Total: $250  That’s a lot of disposable income for a high schooler, and out of the question for someone below the poverty line.  But an after school job could allow students enough pocket change to buy this piecemeal.  Not too out of control.

Warhammer Fantasy

Decided to go with the High Elves because they’re in the Island of Blood box, allowing easy starting or expansion.  This estimate will not allow that, only allowing blisters and box sets as the Island of Blood box is a STEAL and is unfair to all other armies except Skaven.

-Pewter Character: $15

-Pewter mage: $13.50

-2x Archers box: $70

-2x Spearmen Box: $70

-Silver Helms Box: $35

-Bolt Thrower: $22.50 (not the metal band)

Total: $226 – Similar to 40K.  This also does not include Movement Trays, as cheap players can make their own out of breakfast cereal boxes until they can afford good ones.

Warmachine/Hordes

Much smaller scale (which is why I omitted glue/paint)  Chose Cygnar 25pts because I can relate to it.

-Cygnar Battleforce: $50

-Long Gunners x6: $25

-Stormblades: $43

-3x Stormsmiths: $36

Total: $154 This estimate has a lot of error as I compiled it from several sources.

So it seems that for about $250 you can have a small playable force of GW minis, or probably close to 35 points of Warmachine/Hordes.  Differing armies can inflate this price, but probably not by too much.  All in all, not too expensive to get in to.  However expanding your armies can cost, big time.  That’s how they get you.

Blood Bowl Tactica: Team Types

There are a huge variety of teams that all have different tactics in Blood Bowl.  However, it usually comes down to three general categories: Beaty Teams, Balanced Teams, and Finesse Teams.

Beaty Teams (Chaos, Lizardmen, etc.) Have high armor values and strength on their main linemen.  They tend not to have many skills standard.  Their journeymen have a gimmick that makes the team more than a bunch of walking beat sticks.  For example, Chaos Beastmen have Horns, making them great on a Blitz.  Beaty Teams need to hit the enemy hard and team up to get two or three die blocks.  Keep pressure on until you break armor.  Open up avenues for journeymen to score touchdowns.

Balanced teams tend to have average stats an armor, backed up with one major skill per player, such as the human lineman who has Block.  Balanced teams need to work together to set up passes and protect the ball carrier.  Occasionally they can team up and hit an enemy hard, but they usually can’t go toe-to-toe with a Beaty team.

Finesse teams have great Agility but low Armor and Strength.  They also tend to have specialists that fulfill roles.  Finesse teams need to end up at least one square away from the enemy so that they can only hit one of them a turn.  They also excel at running and passing, so they need to score points.   Don’t underestimate them; they can move fast and team up to smash an unwary opponent.

Essentially, each team has to play to its strengths.  My Konquata Monitors need to go to the pitch and beat up the enemy, while they make avenues for the skinks to run the ball.  They are fast for a beaty team, but lack of skills makes me rely on re-rolls to do anything more complex than smacking the enemy.

Grey Knights: Final Thoughts and review

So, we come down to it: is the latest codex good?  Bad?  Broken?

Well, my impressions are that it’s not really BROKEN, but it’s not really good.  Let me define the two.

If the codex was BROKEN, I’d expect Grey Knights armies to dominate the tournament scene and be as widely touted as the Guard leafblower.  As it is, the Grey Knights look like they have a punch of powerful but expensive units.  Grey Knights armies will be smaller than comparable Space Marine armies, but have more neat tricks.  About 1 in 12 times their buffs won’t go off, and this increases if the enemy has a Farseer, Librarian, or Hive Tyrant nearby.  All in all they’re very competitive, even with thier own Deathstar: the Paladins.  But broken?  No.

The codex is BAD because there are a lot of design ideas that, to me, make this not an update to make Daemonhunters more playable but a book to sell Stormravens.  This book is geared toward the old Warmachine 1.0 style of thinking: it’s not overpowered if everyone has something overpowered.  I really dislike the fact that the Grey Knights NEED the Paladins to balance TH/SS Termies, Nob bikers, and all the other “deathstars” out there.  I mentioned in my previous post why I dislike the Stormraven as the ONLY Fast Attack choice, but I want to bring it up again because it’s still crap.

I’d also like to talk about the old book.  In the old Daemonhunters (and the Witch Hunters) codex, there were two “ideals.”  Puritan Inquisitors used Grey Knights because they needed muscle to fight daemons specifically.  Radicals used Daemonhosts and couldn’t use Grey Knights.  I always thought Radicals got the short straw, as Grey Knights were MUCH better than Daemonhosts, and the ‘hosts were random and didn’t do what you wanted.  What I would have liked to see is instead of the 3 inquisitors in the HQ choices would be two: Radical Inquisitors and Puritans.  Puritans would be able to take Nemesis weapons, certain psychic powers, and be able to be in the same army as Grey Knights.  Radicals would have access to Daemon Weapons, a much wider variety of psychic powers including the old MINOR psychic powers, and be in the same list as Daemonhosts.

Further, from the Eisenhorn novels, I’d like to see different LEVELS of Daemonhost.  Lower level Daemonhosts would be some kind of combat nightmare, the equivalent of an Assassin.  Medium level ‘hosts would be like powerful characters, with psychic powers.  High level ‘hosts would be horrifyingly powerful, BUT run the risk of breaking their wards!  There would be a constant struggle between the Inquisitor and the ‘host, possibly leading to the ‘host model switching sides!  Such is the price of gambling with power.

Now, let me say that I do like the 3 Inquisitor entries.  Each has a “flavor” that makes them whatever you want to be.  Plus, the addition of Ordo Xenos gives not only customization but storytelling options.  None of the generic Inquisitors are ultra powerful.

In the end, the Grey Knights codex keeps walking down the road that 5th ed has been going down: becoming even more and more broken.  Back in the day when the Dark Angels codex came out, I was JAZZED.  It looked like they had a codex design philosophy geared toward balance, ease, and matching the fluff.  The current Space Marine codex was similar, but started to diverge from that path.  Now with so many codexes with such design in mind, each army has become all about finding combos and exploits instead of making a fun list.  I guess I’d better get used to it as it’s not going to change any time soon.

…and the Dreadknight is still a stupid name.

Review of Grey Knight “rumors” part 3.

This will cover the rest of the units.  For those who have been wanting a more in-depth analysis, that comes after I finish the units in the book.

Troops

-Grey Knight Terminators: Not as bad as the paladins because they have only 1 wound and no FNP.  However, you can make each model equipped differently so there can be creative allocation.  Same price as normal Space Marine terminators but with more options.  One of these can get the upgrade character Thawn.  Thawn essentially has “We’ll be back” from the Necrons.  When he dies, you put a Dead Thawn counter on the board.  Next turn on a 4+ he may be placed back in play within 1″ of the counter with 1 wound as a separate unit.  I can see this being HELL of annoying, but he’s not that ridiculous.

-Grey Knight Strike Squad: Regular Grey Knights.  Two new things.  One: personal teleporters.  Once per game the unit can move 30″ ignoring terrain.  They cannot assault and count as moving, but can still shoot.  They can’t take these if they take a dedicated transport.  Two: the same new weapons the terminators can take, such as a Nemesis Hammer and a pair of Nemesis Falchions, and a Nemesis Stave.  What do these do?  I have no idea.  My “rumors” don’t have the wargear section.

Dedicated Transports

-Rhino: It’s a Rhino.  It can take some special upgrades and even some psychic powers.  Fortitude shakes off Shaken and Stunned results.

-Razorback: It’s a Razorback.  See above.

-Inquisitorial Chimera: It’s a chimera for the Henchmen.  A couple extra upgrades compared to the Guard one.

Fast Attack

-Stormraven Gunship: I have a problem with this.  Not the Stormraven, it’s the same as the Blood Angel one but with Grey Knight rules and upgrades.  My problem is IT’S THE ONLY FAST ATTACK SELECTION.  Play Grey Knights?  BUY THREE.  This seemed to be designed to sell Stormravens.  I would have made a 2nd Fast attack choice Grey Knights with the Personal Teleporters, and taken the option away from the Troops choice.  But now they will sell more Stormraven kits.  Boo-urns.

Heavy Support

-Purgation Squad: Grey Knights that can take 4 special/heavy weapons.  Other than the new options, the same as before.

-Dreadnought: As the Ven Dread, but without the Ven.  Basically a Space Marine Dread with Grey Knight rules and upgrades.  I would have liked to see the Psycannon and Incinerator as weapons for all Grey Knight Dreads, as I thing Forge World makes a Dread Psycannon bit.

-Nemesis Dreadknight: Dumb name.  It’s a Carnifex with better stats.  Worse, it can take a Personal Teleporter, so it can zoom 30″ and dare the enemy to kill it.  It’s toughness 7 so Meltaguns wound on a 3.  I think this is dumb.  If a Space Marine is injured, they can put it in a big armored case and it’s a vehicle.  If a Grey Knight (already in a suit of armor) steps into a BIGGER suit of armor, he’s a monstrous creature.  Come on.  The guy is right there.  It should have the special rule “Headshot” where models with the Sniper ability that roll a 6 to hit and successfully wound kill the Dreadknight outright.  From the blurry pictures on the internet, it’s 5-7″ tall, so it’s a bit shorter than the Defiler, and the Defiler is a vehicle!  Plus it has a 2+/4+ invul so on average you’d need 24 shots with Plasma Guns at BS 4 to kill it.  Grey Knights did not need this.

-Land Raider Variants: Same as SM Land Raiders, but with Grey Knight options and Fortitude Psychic Power.

Review of Grey Knight “rumors” part 2.

My previous installment dealt with HQ choices.  Time to move on to the Elites.

Techmarine – Pretty similar to Marine Techmarine.  Servo harness standard, lot of options.  Doesn’t look too ridiculous.

Purifiers – Power armor Grey Knights.  They can take a variety of weapons, and two special weapons per 5 models.  Expensive.  Can custom tailor to any foe with expensive weapons.

Venerable Dreadnought – Like the SM VenDread, but more expensive.  Has Aegis, and a few GK upgrades like psybolt ammo.  Nothing special.

Paladins – OK.  Here is a problem.  Upside they are expensive for what you get.  Downside what you get BREAKS THE GAME.  Two wound Terminators, can take an Apothecary for FNP, each can take different weapons so you can allocate however you want.  This is another Nob Bikers unit.  UGH.

Assassins – Similar to what they were before.

Inquisitorial Henchmen Warband – HENCHMEN!  Huge variety.  Arco Flagellants have FNP, good stats.  Banishers make Daemons within 6″ re-roll invuls.  Crusaders are combat oriented, several options.  Jokaero Weaponsmiths are AWESOME!  They give you neat bonuses, the least of which is ORANGUTANS IN YOUR ARMY.  Mystics are walking teleport homers.  Daemonhosts are still random, but at least ALL Daemonhosts in the unit now get the same power every turn, making an all-daemonhost unit pretty scary.  Death Cult Assassins are still combat nightmares.  Servitors are servitors, no change.  Psykers have a shooting psychic power.  Warrior acolytes are more combat guys.  This squad is 3-12 in size and can take a Chimera.  This might have hidden combos I’m not seeing that are ridiculous, but it looks fun for now.

Next: Troops!

Review of Grey Knight “rumors.”

So there have been a lot of rumors about the upcoming Grey Knights codex.  I’m going to look at a “compilation” of “rumors” that is not a “scanned pdf” and I will review each entry over the next few days.  Today: HQ Choices.

Lord Draigo: Powerful against Daemons, but not so much against everyone else.  A bit expensive, but worth it against Eldar Seer Council, or Chaos Daemons.

Mordrak: Neat, lets you take stealth Terminators.

Stern: Better now that he doesn’t let your enemy take a free Greater Daemon of Tzeentch.  A nice beatstick.

Crowe: Great against Guard, good for a boost for a squad.  Nice points value.

Grand Master: Customizable, perfect for making your own character.  Brings back the old Master Crafting of anything you want.  For 5 pts, which is what they should have cost in 3rd ed.

Brother Captain: So, you didn’t want to pay 15 extra points for the Grandmaster, and you’re OK shooting hitting on a 2 instead of a 2 with a 6 re-roll.  That’s fair.  Good choice.

Brotherhood Champion: Cheap and good.  Weapons skill 7.  Suck it, Genestealers.  Not very customizable.  Perhaps too cheap?  Great for killing powerful models with Eternal Warrior (it says “removed” not “causes instant death.”)

Librarian: Similar to Space Marine Librarian, the Cherry Coke to their Original.

Coteaz: Still an idiotic name, but he’s very nice if you want to protect against deep strikers or outflankers.  Also, did you just seize the initiative?  Coteaz gives you the finger.

Karamazov: I HAVE A BIG CHAIR!  DOES ANYONE LIKE MY CHAIR?  Not bad, but a big target.  Blows up your own guys if you want to.  Charge your half-strength stormtroopers into Abbadon and then drop a pie plate on them.

Valeria: Bonus points for the best name in the codex (after the queen of lesbian glam pop, or so I imagine).  Erases an enemy character.  Neat weaponry.

Various Inquisitors: Good.  Each ordo has it’s own unique flavor.  EXCELLENT for storytelling.  Customizable in lots of ways.

On Record Breaking

For those of you who don’t read Bell of Lost Souls, take some time now and punch yourself in the gut as hard as you can.  Then, click the link over on the right side of this blog.

Today there was a link to some pics of the biggest Apocalypse game on record.  Here is the article: http://www.belloflostsouls.net/2011/02/40k-worlds-biggest-apocalypse-game.html

Now, when I was reading the description, I saw that it was about 848,000 points of 40K, which is more than 8 times the size of my gaming group’s biggest game ever, the Big Game 5.  But, when I read their table setup, they had a comparable amount of gaming area.  Then I saw the pictures.  Click the above link and scroll down.  As you can see, all of the forces are about 12″ away from each other, and are packed about 18″ deep behind that.  No terrain other than fortifications purchased with points.

To be fair, this LOOKS awesome.  But the gameplay (if you can call it that) is going to be “OK NOW I SHOOT THAT THING.”  Essentially whoever goes first blows up the other side, and then the second side blows up the first side.  Woo.  No strategy, no storyline, no REASON other than to have big numbers and to have more numbers than anyone else had ever.

It’s like making the world’s largest burrito.  Sure, it’s impressive.  But in the end, all you have is a crappy burrito that is really big.